The Brewing Conflict of the Blue Nile: Conflict of Water Resource Control

The African continent is currently embroiled in a significant dispute over water access, focused on the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This $5 billion project, initiated in 2011 and nearing completion in 2024, has caused the downstream nations of Sudan and Egypt to view its implementation as a direct threat towards their water and energy rights, exacerbating their existing water scarcity challenges. Despite diplomatic efforts, talks have repeatedly faltered, leading to heightened tensions and the looming possibility of regional interstate conflict.

At the heart of the dispute lies the GERD's potential impact on water stability, particularly concerning Egypt's densely populated Nile Delta. With the dam's completion looming, concerns about a water crisis intensify, with projections suggesting freshwater resources could be significantly depleted by 2025. Despite attempts by international actors to mediate, progress remains elusive, further complicated by regional conflicts and alternate third-party interests.

As diplomatic options diminish, the risk of interstate military conflict grows, particularly in the border regions. This brewing conflict highlights the urgent need for a sustainable resolution to avert further escalation and address the impending water crisis facing Sudan and Egypt, underscoring the critical importance of finding a peaceful solution to this pressing issue.

This report contextualizes the intricate political and security details of the conflict regarding this highly specific regional security risk.

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The Brewing Conflict of the Blue Nile.pdf

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